Disney+ was projected to surpass Netflix, but not retaining the rights to the Indian cricket Premier League changed Digital TV Research forecast.
Netflix will keep the pole position among SVOD platforms up until 2027, according to the projections of Digital TV Research, included in their new report SVOD Forecasts Update.
According to the report, global SVOD subscriptions will increase by 475 million between 2021 and 2027 to reach 1.68 billion. Six US-based platforms will account for 47% of the world’s total in 2027.
“Our forecasts in June had Disney+ [274 million subscribers] overtaking Netflix [253 million subs] by 2027,” said Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research. “These forecasts assumed that Disney+ Hotstar would retain the India Premier League cricket rights. It didn’t – hence the 67 million lower forecast for Disney+.”
Murray continued: “SVOD revenues for Disney+ will reach $15 billion by 2027. Despite lowering our forecasts by 67 million subscribers, SVOD revenues for Disney+ will be the same in 2027 as our previous forecast. SVOD ARPUs and revenues will increase in key markets after the platform introduces the hybrid AVOD-SVOD tier and the more expensive SVOD-only tier.”
Netflix will remain the revenue winner, with $30 billion expected by 2027 – similar to Disney+, HBO Max and Paramount+ combined. Global SVOD revenues will reach $132 billion by 2027.